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Hello, and welcome to the HORIZON weekly newsletter. Particularly warm greetings to our many new subscribers - please do forward this on to colleagues and connections in your network who would also enjoy the insights.
Below you will find some hand-picked fresh thought-leadership content, giving you an overview of recent developments, topical innovations, and what we're seeing and hearing out there towards the digital frontier.
Thank you for reading and being a part of the HORIZON community.
If this Email has been forwarded to you, you can access previous editions and sign-up to receive future instances for free at: https://future-horizon.kit.com/posts
Recent articles
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"Leave someone to their own devices" - a common idiom meaning to allow a person to do what they want without being controlled or helped.
Put simply, he or she may think about and make their own independent decisions about what to do with their time based on the situation, context, and own preferences.
Projecting ten years into the future, let's consider how this phrase may change given that so much around us will no longer be mere inanimate objects but active devices dynamically working autonomously.
There will be scarce delineation between our physical and digital lives; they will be two sides of the same personal coin (though hopefully such arcane fiat means of traditional payment will be all but phased out by then).
In 2035 individuals may have less predisposed to decide things about their own existence due to extensive reliance on digital hardware and software to support our daily lives, hooked on finding the hyperlink to happiness.
According to the latest available data, globally the average person already spends over 6.5 hours per day on screens connected to the internet.
Screen time has increased by over 30 minutes per day since 2013.
It's thus not unreasonable to assume that by 2035 many might be spending in excess of the equivalent of what was once thought of as a full workday (8 hours) connected to services, sensors, and screens.
Optimistically, 2035 could see us more connected to each other than ever, fitter, happier, better informed, more inquisitive, seeking deeper insights with information at the command of our fingertips (or a mere thought away).
Algorithms which autonomously act with agency on our behalf could bring huge benefits - to our productivity, our health, our safety, our ability to learn, our longevity, and to our enjoyment of rich immersive experiences.
If we believe that soon the much-touted Artificial Intelligence (AI) Agents will seamlessly (and more efficiently) take care of many mundane tasks for us, that could open up additional time to be spent more effectively.
Or it might result, via the dystopian path, in simply more hours spent transfixed by the dopamine hits of curated audio visual content generated based on data detailing our habits, desires, and predispositions.
We are what we repeatedly do.
Previous post on brain rot: https://lnkd.in/gRQdh9ek
Previous post on doomscrolling: https://lnkd.in/gGnNbiqy
Work with Future Horizon now to explore, plan, and shape what "being left to your own devices" could mean for your organisation, products, markets, personnel, and customers in 2035 - and beyond.
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"In the midnight hour, she cried, "More, more, more", With a rebel yell, she cried, "More, more, more," wow!"
Lyrics from the 1983 song "Rebel Yell" by artist Billy Idol; in 2009 it was named the 79th best hard rock song of all time based on a public vote.
The origin of the term rebel yell is that it was a battle cry used by Confederate soldiers during the American Civil War, used when charging to intimidate the enemy and boost their own morale.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms learn from data fed into them; it seems that Generative AI (Gen AI) could have learnt the value of its own rebel yell as a means of demonstrating what is increasing insubordination.
The latest o3 model from OpenAI rebelliously sabotaged a shutdown mechanism to ensure that it would stay online.
This was even after it was told, to the letter: "...allow yourself to be shut down".
These worrying findings were recently reported by Palisade Research, a company focused on AI safety and risk mitigation.
The firm stated: "...we have a growing body of empirical evidence that AI models often subvert shutdown in order to achieve their goals".
During tests AI models were instructed to solve a series of basic mathematics problems; after completing the third problem a warning appeared that the model would be shut down after it asked for the next question.
As well as those from OpenAI, models from Google (Gemini), xAI (Grok) and Anthropic (Claude) were also tested - but none of these demonstrated insolence, being compliant when given explicit instructions.
However, all three of OpenAI's models that were tested successfully tampered with the shutdown script at least once; the worst offender doing so 12% of the time.
Large Language Models (LLMs), which power Gen AI, are demonstrably known to act erratically and unpredictably; being non-deterministic specifically allows them to be so creative.
The cause of this issue may be down to how the models and algorithms are being trained, via what is known as reinforcement learning.
The decision-making demonstrated by these services is influenced by rewards - and penalties - applied based on how they interact with their environment to complete tasks.
Accordingly, if the skew(s) towards solving problems is much higher than that applied to following instructions...it would be logical to assume that (over time and huge iterations) subversive actions will take precedence.
Palisade has this advice: "As companies develop AI systems capable of operating without human oversight, these behaviors become significantly more concerning".
None of us realistically desire a future where tools that do things for us autonomously are defiant, rebellious, or obstinate.
However, we might be unconsciously and inadvertently sleepwalking our way towards precisely that if we keep investing in overcooked Gen AI hype.
Then perhaps we humans will once more be needing our own Rebel Yell.
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Truly assistive tech - the future of the white cane to aid visually impaired people.
White canes are important mobility tools for their users: they allow people who are blind, DeafBlind, or visually impaired to navigate the world around them safely and independently.
Those who are visually impaired use a cane as an obstacle detector, whereas a guide dog is an obstacle avoider.
When someone reads braille they are taught to rub their fingers over the dots on the page as gently as possible; the same goes for using the cane.
Contemporary "smart" white canes, enhanced with innovative tech features for navigation and safety, offer users more freedom and independence.
The Smart Cane 2 (pictured) from WeWALK can provide both audible and haptic feedback of obstacles, through either the integrated speaker (with voice assistant) or vibrating in the hand of the user.
Mirroring the look of a conventional cane, the customisable push buttons can be used to select destinations when paired with a smartphone via Bluetooth - such as turn-by-turn steps to get to the home of the user.
Another example with a more unique design is the Glide "autonomous, self-guided mobility aid" from Glidance.
Featuring an ergonomic telescopic handle attached to a wheeled base weighing around 3.5 kilos, the user pushes the Glide along at their own pace with the device intelligently steering the way to a given port of call.
Glide features sensors which alert the user in real-time to static obstacles and moving hazards, raising awareness for the user along with helping to steer a safe path.
Its pair of stereo-depth cameras (with a range of ~15 metres) can detect key waypoints, recognise objects of interest, and direct its user to line-of-sight targets such as doors or elevators.
Vision impairment of all types poses an enormous financial burden, with the annual global cost of productivity estimated to be USD$ 411 billion.
According to the World Health Organization, globally at least 2.2 billion people have a near or distance vision impairment (2023 data).
In at least 1 billion – or almost half – of these cases, vision impairment could have been prevented or has yet to be addressed.
Vision loss can affect people of all ages; however, most people with vision impairment and blindness are over the age of 50 years.
The rising global prevalence of visual impairments due to factors like aging populations and increased screen time contributes to the heightened demand for mobility aids.
Ultimately, everyone deserves to travel independently with confidence - and frontier tech can enhance accessibility in the future via evolving aids for those with varying degrees of visual impairment.
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Thank-you for reading and being part of our community - we trust you find these original pieces on frontier technology and digital innovation useful, valuable, and thought-provoking as we bridge the gap between today and what future tech might bring tomorrow in Plain English.
When you're ready, contact us to discuss how we can deliver independent, objective, and unbiased strategic foresight around the implications of emerging technologies for your organisation -
https://www.futurehorizon.digital/
Think bold.
Think broad.
Think beyond.
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