HORIZON weekly 26th November 2024 from Future Horizon


HORIZON

Your weekly dispatch of strategic foresight on emerging technologies from Future Horizon

Hello, and welcome to the HORIZON weekly newsletter. Particularly warm greetings to our many new subscribers - please do forward this on to colleagues and connections in your network who would also enjoy the insights.

Below you will find some hand-picked fresh thought-leadership content, giving you an overview of recent developments, topical innovations, and what we're seeing and hearing out there towards the digital frontier.


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Recent articles

Augmented Reality and the impact on mobile devices.


This is the fifth of our new weekly strategic series of Top Ten Anticipations for 2025 – 2030. Topic number four, Wearables becoming Implants, can be found here: https://lnkd.in/g2yHfJhg

The smartphone is now the digital umbilical cord for living modern life.

Realistically, when was the last time you were separated from your device, and how many days could you last without the warm glow of its tempting touchscreen protruding from the palm of your paw?

Whilst many might think of the latest-and-greatest Apple device when they hear smartphone, the very first of these modern marvels was released forty years ago.

The IBM Simon Personal Communicator was released in 1994 – it had a touchscreen, numerous apps, plus could send and receive Email.

Between 2025 and 2030, we’ll see the next phase of morphing of our mobile devices – with Augmented Reality (AR) playing a profound part of what comes next.

In the AR experience, you can see a composite view of physical or real-world elements and digital components.

Important to note, however, is that there is no interaction between any digital components and the physical world elements.

An example of AR you may already be familiar with could be adding digital effects like bunny ears to your photos in the likes of Snapchat.

By 2030, rather than getting a minor arm workout by holding up your mobile device for hours daily, AR will have migrated to right in front of your eyes: smart contact lenses.

Instead of looking at a screen, you’ll be able to look through one – leaving your hands free whilst doing so.

Smart contact lenses will provide a highly discreet and seamless AR experience with a natural field of view (including peripheral vision) – the tracking of your eyes may also potentially increase accessibility.

Prime use cases include health workers, delivery drivers, emergency services, athletes, as well as more humble pastimes such as exercise or gaming (already the largest form of entertainment globally).

Tech giants such as Sony and Google have already filed for smart contact lens patents.

Though perhaps not having the current lustre of Artificial Intelligence, forward-thinking firms such as Meta still believe in AR – in the last twelve months the firm invested over 17 billion, with a total expenditure north of 60bn so far on AR, Virtual Reality, and the Metaverse.

History has shown us that commodity tech eventually reduces to marginal cost – the impact of AR on mobile devices such as smart contact lenses will likely follow this pattern by 2030.

It won’t happen in the blink of an eye...but the future innovative path of progress in this field of emerging tech is increasingly clear.

Next up in our strategic series of Top Ten Anticipations for 2025 – 2030 is titled "Energy: Hyperscalers as utility firms" - which we'll deliver in HORIZON next week.


"Human Beings Are A Disease, A Cancer Of This Planet. You're A Plague, And We Are The Cure."


Agent Smith (pictured), from the seminal 1999 film The Matrix.

Smith, the main protagonist in the series, was a program in the simulated reality Matrix with the responsibility to keep order within the system by terminating anything which might bring instability.

The character had the capability to replicate his physical form, resulting in an ever-growing army of Smiths connected by a single consciousness.

Which brings us to Microsoft.

The global tech hyperscaler is making you take Artificial Intelligence (AI), whether you want it or not.

Copilot Pro is an AI assistant for Microsoft Office 365, introduced earlier this year.

Uptake of paying the chunky monthly premium for access was less than anticipated, given it had a book price of $20 per user per month.

In a move reminiscent of former CEO Steve Ballmer, Microsoft is now adding Copilot Pro to Microsoft 365 Personal and Family subscriptions.

To reflect the value we’ve added over the past decade and enable us to deliver new innovations for years to come, we’re increasing the prices of Microsoft 365 Personal and Family." - naturally.

The price uplift will come into effect at the next renewal - a typical tactic with any "as a service" business models which force upgrades; it will also allow them to put towards increased usage statistics.

The firm also recently announced Copilot would be integrated via agents into Enterprise apps such as SAP and ServiceNow.

Of course, many of the other incumbent Big Tech firms - including the "Magnificent 7" - also see agents being central to their wares.

Many of us don't need (never mind want) AI agents in every facet of our future lives; laptops, phones, drones, cars, TVs, fridges, or wearables.

We'll end up with AI agents everywhere - but there's a distinct lack of integration or interoperability (no single consciousness a-la Agent Smith).

Many seem content to continue taking the Blue Pill (no, not THAT one...) from The Matrix, staying in the illusion that AI is magical and will solve all our ills - rather than the critical-thinking offered by the metaphorical Red Pill.

Perhaps these infinite and omnipresent agents, whose marketing value is all about approachable conversational appeal, will use another line from Smith: "Oh, I'm Not So Bad, Once You Get To Know Me!"

Whether this in future results in enhanced productivity and efficiency as promised, or simply more complexity and entanglement; keep watching...


Restoring vision for blind people - using a retinal tech probe.


In the near future, using emerging technologies and innovation we'll be able to alleviate and remediate many health conditions previously thought medically impossible.

Science Corporation, a California-based clinical-stage medical technology company, has announced the preliminary clinical trials results for its PRIMA retinal implant.

The study involves 38 patients whose sight had deteriorated with age.

These interim results focused on patients who had lost their central visual field due to severe macular degeneration, which makes them unable to read and struggle to recognise faces as everything looks a bit blurry.

The retina is hard to regenerate, and the number of transplant donors can’t meet demand.

PRIMA is a visual prosthesis: it consists of a tiny cableless and autonomous photovoltaic chip (about the size of a piece of salt), surgically implanted under the retina.

The implant is a honeycomb pattern of 378 light-powered independently controlled pixels that convert infrared light into electrical signals.

Post-procedure, the patient uses a a special pair of glasses with a camera and a projection system, along with a pocket processor that adjusts the image for brightness, clarity and magnification.

Working in tandem, the glasses send visual information which the chip translates and feeds to the brain for further processing.

Patients’ reading ability improved at both 6 and 12 months of assessment post-implant - final results are expected in 2026.

Legally blind patients using the system could see up to 11 more lines on a standard eye exam and read, play cards, and do crossword puzzles.

The study was designed to demonstrate PRIMA’s safety and efficacy to reach European market approval (CE mark).

Science Corporation develops Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) technology.

You may have come across BCI, along with Brain-Machine Interface (BMI) - while both terms are often used interchangeably when it comes to neural engineering, there is a subtle and important distinction.

BCI generally refers to a system that uses non-invasive methods to read brain signals and translate them into external commands.

BMI typically describes a system that uses implanted electrodes to directly access brain activity, signifying a more invasive approach.

Other companies in the neural engineering space include Precision Neuroscience​, ​Synchron​, and ​Neuralink​.

The CEO of Science Corp, Max Hodak, co-founded Neuralink (the brain implant startup backed by Elon Musk), leaving to start Science in 2021.

Tiny devices that send information directly from people’s brains to computers is an exciting and growing emerging tech space.

There are use cases not only with the likes of paralysis but also mental health afflictions such as depression and schizophrenia.

Let's see what happens, but the future is bright - and not only when it comes to sight.


One. Point. Zero. Eight. Million.

The first artwork by a humanoid robot has been sold at auction in the past few days, fetching a whopping value of USD $1.08m.

Mark your diaries; November 2024 could be the tipping point.

It was created by one of the most advanced robots in the world: "Ai-Da" is a pioneering humanoid artist.

Ai-Da is designed to resemble a woman and is named after Ada Lovelace, who is considered the world’s first computer programmer.

Completed in 2019, Ai-Da is capable of drawing and painting using cameras in its eyes, Artificial Intelligence algorithms, and robotic arm; though it has legs, it cannot walk.

The large-scale, 2.2m portrait "A.I. God" (pictured) far exceeded its estimated value of $120,000 to $180,000 - with 27 bids made on the piece.

The portrait of mathematician Alan Turing "...has a fractured and layered quality reflecting our current, fractured and multifaceted worlds" - according to the bot, which also uses AI to audibly speak.

In delicious irony, Turing was a pioneer of early computer science; he raised concerns about the use of AI way back in the 1950s.

For those that fret for the future, fearing robots and AI will put humans out of work and, potentially, ultimately replace us...this adds fuel to the fire.

Sold by Sotheby's in New York to an undisclosed buyer, the auction house said the historic sale "...launches a new frontier in the global art market, establishing the auction benchmark for an artwork by a humanoid robot".

If one has the means then of course spend money on whatever you like.

However, this feels like when the Non-Fungible Token (NFT) market peaked in January 2022 ($17 billion of trading volume).

Shortly after, that over-hyped market collapsed spectacularly.

This could thus be the start of a humanoid and AI arts rally, but markets always come in cycles.

History clearly shows that, sometimes, we humans are poor at learning lessons.

Will our future advanced digital inventions and innovations share that behaviour, or become better learners that we are?


Moving on up.

Lots of exciting progress is being made towards our future in space, both above our own planet and beyond.

China is in the process of establishing a mega-constellation of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, called Spacesail, to provide low-latency, high-speed and ultra-reliable satellite broadband internet services.

Similar in concept to Starlink from SpaceX, Spacesail has three distinct phases of evolution; it started in 2023, and is on-target to have launched 108 satellites this year.

By the end of 2025, 648 satellites providing regional network coverage; the second phase will expand this to global coverage with an additional 648 satellites by 2027.

The ambitious third phase, aiming for completion by 2030, plans to have a staggering total of 15,000 satellites offer mobile direct-connect multiservice integration.

On top of this, China has two other "ten-thousand-star constellations" planned, demonstrating quite how busy our space locale is getting.

Separately, the Nepture capsule from Space Perspective aims to make transformative space travel accessible to more people than ever before and be the world’s first carbon-neutral spaceflight experience.

Neptune comprises a pressurised capsule propelled by a giant SpaceBalloon, offering a safe and accessible six-hour floating journey to the edge of space (approximately 100,000 feet - 3x the height of most passenger aircraft).

Though still in development, passengers will enjoy the world’s first Space Lounge, providing views through the largest windows ever flown to space, plus a world-class meal and cocktail service, Wi-Fi, and lavatory.

Colorado-based Sierra Space is planning to replace the International Space Station (ISS) once it retires at the end of the decade with an inflatable space station.

The Large Integrated Flexible Environment (LIFE) is a modular, three-story high inflatable habitat - a series of yurt-esque living quarters that will let scientists, artists, and others live and work for weeks.

The company believe this innovative and unique structure will provide opportunities for multiple businesses such as manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals to optimise zero gravity benefits.

Lastly, the European Space Agency (ESA​) has unveiled the first 3D printed component made in space; long-term, unlocking of this capability could have far-reaching commercial implications, such as making space settlement viable.

Whilst life down on Earth today may seem beset with many negatives, there is lots of optimistic progress going on above us towards a bright future.


Thank-you for reading and being part of our community - we trust you find these original pieces on emerging technology and digital innovation useful, valuable, and thought-provoking as we bridge the gap between today and what future tech might bring tomorrow in Plain English.

When you're ready, contact us to discuss how we can deliver independent, objective, and unbiased strategic foresight around the implications of emerging technologies for your organisation - https://www.futurehorizon.digital/

Think bold.

Think broad.

Think beyond.


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HORIZON is the weekly short summary Email from Future Horizon where the latest digital innovations and emerging technologies are explained in Plain English.

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