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Hello, and welcome to the HORIZON weekly newsletter. Particularly warm greetings to our many new subscribers - please do forward this on to colleagues and connections in your network who would also enjoy the insights.
Below you will find some hand-picked fresh thought-leadership content, giving you an overview of recent developments, topical innovations, and what we're seeing and hearing out there towards the digital frontier.
If this Email has been forwarded to you, you can access previous editions and sign-up to receive future instances for free at: https://future-horizon.ck.page/posts
Recent articles
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You have a problem.
Q4 2024 starts today, Tuesday 1st October. No doubt your organisation is already deep into planning for 2025. Targets will be cascaded, measurement metrics set, and changes outlined. The problem: how do you know what's coming next? What might happen not only in the coming Quarter, next year, but also further forward beyond... Nobody can predict the future. The risk of the assumptions made during strategic planning not being sound and valid needs to be mitigated, however. Having an outside-in perspective from an external expert entity to provide perspective in addition your internal lens is the path towards solving this problem. Hiring an independent, objective, and impartial advisor to validate plans through the lens of strategic foresight and emerging technologies can provide numerous benefits for business planning such as: OUTSIDE POINT-OF-VIEW: identify opportunities for innovation and growth, positioning the organisation for long-term competitiveness. IDENTIFICTION OF BLIND SPOTS: identify potential overlooked risks that may not be apparent to internal teams. MITIGATION OF DISRUPTIVE FORCES: by understanding the potential impact of emerging technologies, the business can mitigate associated risks. FRESH PERSPECTIVE: offering clarity and distilling complex issues from a neutral standpoint, also potentially offering validation of plans. CROSS-INDUSTRY INSIGHTS: sharing relevant experiences and trends from other applicable sectors or geographies. This approach reduces the risk of being blindsided by disruptive changes, helping ensure that the organisation is well-positioned to adapt and capitalise on future opportunities. By leveraging an advisor's strategic foresight, the firm can mitigate risks, make informed decisions, and align its long-term plans with evolving trends and market demands, ultimately delivering value for the organisation. The value delivered extends beyond mere validation of plans, potentially reshaping the company's strategic direction and fostering a culture of innovation and adaptability essential for success in 2025 and beyond. Exploring futures and building anticipation is zero risk - shape what comes next over your preferred horizon. Contact Future Horizon today to work with us to challenge conventional thinking, have the implications of the latest digital innovations in your realm explored and explained, plus gain actionable insights. You need to be properly prepared on The Start Line in order to win, and that's just around the corner so the time to act is now. Think bold. Think broad. Think beyond.
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All the froth of a Venti-sized cappuccino, with actual depth underneath of a single weak espresso shot.
The initial release of ChatGPT from OpenAI is coming up to its second anniversary (it came out on 30th November, 2022). Since that time, we've seen a paradigm shift in how Artificial Intelligence (AI) is perceived by the general public around the world. ChatGPT was by no means the first chatbot. That honour goes to ELIZA, which was developed by Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Joseph Weizenbaum in the 1960s. The last ~24 months has seen virtually every firm frantically scramble, like a cat on a recently polished floor, to bill themselves as "powered by AI". However, have you noticed that Big Tech incumbents are actively throttling the spread and rollout of AI? This could be down to corporate inertia, or perhaps even ethics... Not so; it's about money, plus politics and people. They need it to be measured so that new offerings don't cannibalise their existing products and services which bring in the bulk of their revenue. Staff have Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to hit, which of course are tied to their variable remuneration such as bonuses and stock options. Big Tech companies - particularly those that sell apps via the Software-as-a-Service (Saas) model - are struggling to pivot. Ideally, they want AI to be an AND - not an OR. Take Gemini Advanced from Google, the paid product which promises productivity increases by integrating with the likes of Gmail. Most of the time it tells you what it cannot do; it's deeply underwhelming and not worth the premium right now. Apple has been cautious in rolling out its "Intelligence" AI offering, and will limit it to its latest phone models (iPhone 16). SaaS-native business Salesforce is morphing its price structure, focusing how it charges on outcomes rather than bums-on-seats licenses. As companies use AI tools more, there may come a time when they replace warm, fleshy bipeds - meaning a downturn in revenues for SaaS-type companies which price based on the users accessing their products. Per Bloomberg: "Wall Street analysts have spent recent earnings calls sparring with software company management teams over this risk". Established firms are therefore at risk, but startups continue to make hay. Venture investors aren't tired: data from Crunchbase found that in the first half of 2024 alone, more than $35.5 billion was invested into AI startups globally. OpenAI aims for a $150 billion valuation as it raises another $6.5 billion. The bubble continues to inflate. As your company no doubt is planning for 2025, given Q4 is now here, be mindful of these facts as you plan how AI might be used in your organisation over the next year and beyond. Don't be left with cold espresso when you thought you had ordered a pricey big hot cappuccino - take note of how much froth there might be on top. You've been warned!
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Over 4 billion people across the globe wear spectacles; half of the planet will require glasses by 2050 - so in terms of wearables, it's an obvious market for innovative tech enhancement.
May we interest you in renting a pair of oversized spectacles at USD$99 per month, for a minimum of 12 months, and have to hand back at the end of the subscription? Not just any glasses: Augmented Reality (AR) viewing orbs. They are intended primarily for software developers, the people who will design apps and content that could make the glasses more compelling. These are the fifth-generation iteration of AR glasses from social networking firm Snap - best known for its photo filters. Thus far, previous iterations have struggled to catch the imagination of the public and really take off. The photo-messaging company first started selling the tech-infused frames back in 2016 in an attempt to diversify its way of making money. Most of Snap’s $5 billion in revenue today comes from digital advertising; the company sees hardware as an additional income stream. The 5th-gen specs are more immersive thanks to a wider field of view, higher-quality screens with increased resolution, and longer-lasting batteries (charged via USB). The glasses weigh 226 grams, with features powered by Snap OS, a new interface the company designed. The chunky frames have two physical buttons on top of the arms: one for powering on and off, with the other activating the video record function. If a photo or video is being taken a LED blinks to let others know. All other functions are controlled via hand gestures, with voice control also an option. AR objects - projected onto the lenses - can be pinched, resized, pulled, moved, or rotated using your hands which infrared sensors detect. Spatial experiences come from partners such as LEGO. The glasses can be used indoors or outside, with seamless automatic transition between clear lenses and tinted sunglasses. Previous smart specs coverage: https://lnkd.in/gWdZHFxp Meta is another player in the AR glasses space, having just announced Orion (previously codenamed Project Nazare) on 25th September. This is its first AR specs offering; the prototype is not available for sale. Less clunky than the Snap offering, along with silicon carbide lenses they uniquely have an accompanying wristband which uses electromyography to detect subtle hand movements. Another step in its quest towards the Metaverse. Apple and Google are also believed to also have active AR hardware research projects. AR thus remains a nascent space space, but future use cases across industries are numerous and longer-term there is huge upside value potential. What's your view: are you also bullishly optimistic this is a visionary (pun-intended) technology? Let us know by replying to this Email.
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It can be frustrating when you can't find "that file".
Even with enhanced search and rigour around how data is structured, not being able to find the right information or version can vex the best of us. Perhaps technology needs to take a leaf from biology in the future. The ability to turn experiences into memories allows us to draw from the past (well, hopefully), plus leverage what we learnt as a model to respond appropriately to new situations. A recent study has found that our brains store THREE copies of every single memory. Researchers at the University of Basel's Biozentrum were able to watch what happens when a new memory is formed by imaging the brains of mice. What they found was that the rodent brains called three different sets of neurons into action to record the memory. Previously, scientists believed cells stored just one copy of every memory in the brain. Mice have 75 different cell types in their cortex, the same as humans. Memories evolve throughout our lifetimes, changing as we learn and experience new things and as we recall a memory repeatedly. They inevitably degrade as we age, so the multiple copies enables the hippocampus to regulate how memories change over time. The copies vary in terms of when they're created, how long they last and how modifiable they are through time. First to be created are so-called early-born neurons - these are responsible for storing a long-term copy of the memory that is initially weak but becomes stronger over time. Next comes middle-ground neurons, which are more stable from the outset, followed by late-born neurons that from the beginning encode very strong copies of a memory. Notably, the memories stored by late-born neurons were more plastic, or malleable, than those of early-born neurons, the team found. This suggests that at the start of memory formation - when early-born neurons reign - the information stored remains fairly stable over time, while memories stored later on are more easily warped by new information. If the same phenomenon happens in humans, this finding could someday lead to the development of new therapies for specific disorders. Better understanding how memories are encoded and modified in the brain could bring back memories that were thought to be lost, or help to soften painful memories that are intrusive (say through PTSD). A little like permanently removing, or restoring that "deleted" file from the Recycling Bin or Trash on your computer. If you store files in the Cloud, they are usually copied to more than one place through distributed file systems and replication, ensuring redundancy, high availability, and fault tolerance. That said, perhaps we can be even better in future if we mimic mammal brains when it comes to long-term management of data. What do you "think" of this? Let us know.
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Spanish multinational banking giant BBVA has introduced digital asset USD Coin (USDC) for some of its clients.
BBVA’s institutional and private banking clients in Switzerland can now manage Circle’s stablecoin USDC alongside traditional investments on the same platform. This move enables institutional investors to utilise USDC, a widely recognised stablecoin, for various financial transactions and investments. It simplifies access to crypto markets and trading operations for a variety of corporate investors, fund managers, private banking clients, and large companies. This is the third cryptocurrency BBVA has added to its digital asset service in Switzerland. In 2021 it launched the service with Bitcoin and Ether, the two largest by market volume and usage - and the most demanded by investors. This new addition enables clients to speed up their trading operations by enabling them to transfer value more efficiently with blockchain. The stablecoins will be secured in BBVA’s vault, further enhancing trust in the bank’s crypto services. The new feature also allows clients to exchange, custody, and convert USDC into euros, U.S. dollars, or other currencies. They can exchange, custody, or automatically convert USDC in near real-time. By offering USDC, BBVA aims to enhance its digital asset services and cater to the growing demand for stable and efficient cryptocurrency solutions among institutional clients. Investment fund managers and other large companies often use stablecoins, such as USDC, to complete transactions more quickly. They also provide a way to hedge against the volatility of other cryptocurrencies, by converting assets into stablecoins to preserve value during market fluctuations. USDC is widely used in Decentralised Finance (DeFi) and digital payments due to its liquidity and transparency. The stablecoin is pegged to the real USD, and backed 1:1 by highly liquid cash and cash-equivalent assets. USDC reserves are held at regulated financial institutions with published third-party monthly attestations. In addition, of the top 10 stablecoins by market cap, only USDC is currently compliant with the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), the European Union’s comprehensive law governing crypto assets. This step aligns with the increasing integration of stablecoins into traditional financial services. Through the new offering, the bank’s customers will have the opportunity to explore the crypto markets, purchasing desired offerings that would normally be unavailable on traditional financial platforms. BBVA is thus enabling its Swiss clients to explore diverse new opportunities to exchange value in a secure and regulated tokenised digital environment via innovation. Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenisation might not be front-page headline news (which is a good thing), but along with digital assets more broadly it is certainly progressing...and will be a key part of our future.
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Thank-you for reading and being part of our community - we trust you find these original pieces on emerging technology and digital innovation useful, valuable, and thought-provoking as we bridge the gap between today and what future technology might bring tomorrow in Plain English.
Contact us now to discuss how we can deliver strategic foresight for your business - https://www.futurehorizon.digital/
Think bold.
Think broad.
Think beyond.
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