HORIZON weekly 17th December 2024 from Future Horizon


HORIZON

Your weekly dispatch of strategic foresight on emerging technologies from Future Horizon

Hello, and welcome to the HORIZON weekly newsletter. Particularly warm greetings to our many new subscribers - please do forward this on to colleagues and connections in your network who would also enjoy the insights.

Below you will find some hand-picked fresh thought-leadership content, giving you an overview of recent developments, topical innovations, and what we're seeing and hearing out there towards the digital frontier.

Given how close we are to the Festive holidays, HORIZON thanks you for reading and being part of the community - wishing all of our recipients and those dear to them a very Merry Christmas!


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Recent articles

Your digital asset vault.


This is the eighth of our new weekly strategic series of Top Ten Anticipations for 2025 – 2030. Topic number seven, The state of AI in our daily lives come 2030, can be found here: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/futurehorizonco_the-state-of-ai-in-our-daily-lives-come-2030-activity-7271772821884669952-aN40?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Come 2030, the value and importance of assets which you own and hold digitally will be tremendously significant.

Today's digital assets, from cryptocurrencies to personal data and online accounts, often require cumbersome management and varied security measures.

By 2030, the digital asset vault will offer a seamless, secure, and user-friendly solution, revolutionising our digital landscape.

This vault will be designed with cutting-edge encryption and multi-factor biometric authentication, ensuring that only you (and those you authorise) can access your valuable digital possessions.

Even for the non-technical public, this platform will be intuitive, with straightforward interfaces and guided steps, making digital asset management accessible to everyone.

The digital asset vault will also encompass critical elements such as digital inheritance.

When you pass on, your digital assets will hold both value and also sentimental importance for your loved ones.

The vault will provide clear and secure mechanisms for designating beneficiaries and ensuring that your digital wealth, from Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to cherished digital memories, is passed on seamlessly.

No more worrying about forgotten passwords, legal liabilities, or inaccessible accounts; your digital legacy will be preserved with the utmost care as part of your wider estate.

Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenisation, the process of converting physical assets into digital tokens that represent ownership of those assets, may be worth trillions of dollars around the world come 2030.

Where there is regulatory framework alignment, global citizens and multinational companies will find that cross-border digital transactions become as straightforward as sending an Email.

This could even include real people – such as athletes.

Whilst it may sound fanciful, third-party ownership of sports stars is already an established investment practice – though not one without controversy.

Therefore, moving this into the fractional digital domain, and extending it out to – for example, musicians or artists – is not an enormous leap.

By 2030 you will have the capacity and capability to store, buy, sell, lend, rent, own, transfer, or trade critical information about yourself which will reside in your own personal digital asset vault – such as health data.

Between 2025 and 2030 the digital asset vault will blend security with accessibility and ensuring that our digital valuables are as organised and protected as our physical ones.

Next up in our strategic series of Top Ten Anticipations for 2025 – 2030 is titled "Robotics: from warfare to welfare" - which we'll deliver in HORIZON next week.


The Digital Deluge: on average you may have spent over THREE MONTHS of cumulative time this year looking at your devices.


According to a report in early 2024 by DataReportal, the average user is spending 6 hours and 40 minutes per day on the Internet.

When you extrapolate that out for 365 days, you get to an approximate answer of 3.38 months.

There's a clear trend of us spending less time reading, instead investing more of our minutes viewing pictures and videos - which will have significant implications for our future.

We humans process images more quickly, implicitly, and memorably than text.

The online content we're filling our eyeballs, ears, and brains with is thus enormously influential and, frankly, manipulative when it comes to our own perceptions.

Things like stereotypes and prejudices.

A study this year, titled "Online images amplify gender bias" and published in the journal Nature, found that gender bias is consistently more prevalent in images than text for both female- and male-typed categories.

Rather than merely showing the extent of gender bias in online pictures, the researchers tested whether exposure to these images had any impact on people's own biases.

They did.

423 US participants used Google to search for different occupations in the experiment.

Two groups searched: one by text (using either Google or Google News); the group instead used Google Images.

Thereafter all participants were given a test to measure implicit biases.

Compared to text-based descriptions, the participants who used images and received visuals in response showed much higher rates of implicit gender bias after the experiment – both immediately after, and three days later.

The smarts of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will save us though, right?

Not as it stands.

A few months back the CEO of CHANEL went to the HQ of Microsoft and asked ChatGPT to show her a picture of her company’s leadership; they were 100% all men in suits.

Awkward, and embarrassing.

Chanel’s employee makeup (pun very much intended) is 76% women - 96% of the brand’s clientele are also women.

The image attached to this piece was generated using Firefly from Adobe, with the prompt "AI Gender Bias".

Any algorithm underpinning an AI service is trained on existing data; however, as that runs out and we rely more on synthetic data we could end up with model collapse.

See more on model collapse here: https://lnkd.in/gmiA5SdN

We now have a small window of opportunity to use data to invent and create future digital solutions predicated on more balanced perspectives, with less biases, stereotypes, and prejudices.

Our future existence does not have to be purely digital, virtual, or generated - plus it can be more fair, representative, equitable, and inclusive...if we choose.


Reality Bites - how influenced are you by online reviews, especially when it comes to food and beverage?


The number one restaurant "Ethos" in Austin, Texas, USA has over 88 thousand people following its Instagram page (see pic).

Everything about it comes from Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen AI).

Fabricated food and venue, but the engagement, interactions, likes and comments are 100% real with most people having absolutely NO idea.

The Instagram account of Ethos started on March 22, 2023, with a post about its wine.

It initially went viral in Feb 2024 when its image of a croissant baked in the shape of a dinosaur exploded; naturally, this was actually AI-generated.

The page looks legit with links to reservations and merch - hallmarks of the next big foodie "must visit" venue.

It's also not a novel exercise; back in 2017 there was an article on VICE Media about how someone made their garden shed in London the top restaurant on Tripadvisor - it's worth looking up.

Some might view this sort of fake content as a complete waste of time and resources, done in bad taste - but then every palate is subjective.

Objectively tough to swallow, but clearly our appetite for such content seems largely impossible to satiate.

It's clearly a creative passion project for someone or something, and it's finding resonance with an audience - so where's the harm in pushing the art of the possible?

It's another example of the blurring of the lines between fact and fiction, connecting physical and digital - with anyone being able to do almost anything they want in the latter.

It's both similar in some aspects to, and yet distinct from, "Bistro Huddy" that was previously explored here: https://lnkd.in/gnYm3Yzr

Nobody knows who - or what - is behind Ethos, and frankly it's unclear why it exists at all.

A clue could be in the name: ethos is a Greek word meaning "character".

All this points towards important macro questions for humanity: the erosion of critical thinking, and our seemingly implicit trust of digital content that we see (or at least don't consciously take the time to question).

Authenticity today and in the future - something for us all to chew on.


"Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the fairest of them all?" asked the Evil Queen in the fairytale of Snow White.

In the future, that may be answered by your AI-Powered home gym and personal trainer.

Available now to back on Kickstarter, the K1 from Aeke (it rhymes with like) promises 140+ classes, real-time form correction, personalised workouts, and progress tracking.

The company received a US patent in August 2024, listing the creation as a "Fitness mirror".

The initial idea was hatched in Jan 2021; mass production is due to take place this month followed by worldwide deliveries starting in Feb 2025.

It features a a vertical 43-inch 4K touchscreen display with an integrated 2.1 surround-sound audio system, mounted to a folding floor (see pic).

It can moved around on wheels, though the contraption does weigh 77kg so for some this might be a workout in itself.

The price is currently USD$1998, though the planned retail price is a chunky USD$3699.

Interestingly, there is seemingly no ongoing subscription; the purchase price includes full lifetime access as well as incremental software updates.

The likes of Peloton Interactive have fallen from grace following the reopening of gyms post-pandemic, reducing the desire to users pay recurring subscription fees in order to exercise from home.

Activewear brand lululemon completed a deal to buy Mirror in June 2020, which offered a very similar use case solution - albeit with a monthly access charge on top of the hardware purchase cost.

However, the company ceased selling the mirror in late 2023, with new content also halting this year - so there is precedent in this space.

As the user exercises the K1 visually tracks their body position at seven different skeletal points.

This monitoring allows the device to count repetitions, plus provide real-time audio-visual corrective feedback if their form is incorrect.

Naturally there is a social element, allowing for competition - either with more than one other physically there or remote against friends and family - plus the obligatory smartphone app accoutrement.

At the end of each workout, a performance report is provided which covers metrics like duration, calories burned, reps, sets and so on.

It also tracks the person's progress, and tells them which areas will need to be addressed in future workouts.

Before long, this sort of wellness-related data from devices will be traded as an asset, potentially bundled in future with, for example, a reduced medical insurance premium if the customer consents to being monitored.

It's also eminently possible that future iterations will have enhanced AI agent-like functions, integrated with other smart home elements, so it can interact more with you - or even remind you to exercise.

Nudge theory in action - controlled by AI.

This sort of smart mirror is probably not recommended as a Christmas present for that special someone in your life though.


Japanese expression: 明日のことを言うと天井のネズミが笑う – "if you speak of tomorrow, the rats in the ceiling will laugh".

More of a proverb, the saying creatively captures the sentiment that no one can predict the future.

Not even a Futurist.

Japan is demonstrating, however, that it's possible to make the future with what we do.

The "Auto Flow Road" was announced earlier this year to alleviate an acute issue around driver availability in the transportation sector; more meat is now on the bones.

Previous post on this same topic: https://lnkd.in/gC2Kyjxx

The updated design shows three lanes; one on either side, going in opposite directions.

There is also a middle lane sandwiched between them for efficiency "buffering".

This is where the transports may loiter temporarily to await other packages and make a convoy, synced with the arrival time of the onward vehicle.

By 2027 experiments will take place on sections of the new expressway that are under construction.

Should these prove to be successful, the first stage is due to be operational in the mid-2030s.

If the idea works, the system could perform the work of 12,000 to 17,000 people per day, according to the Japanese government.

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism​ expects that, by 2030, the Japanese transportation industry will see a capacity shortfall of 34% compared to now.

This is not robots stealing jobs: the truck driver workforce peaked at 980,000 in 1995; it's projected to decline to about 520,000 by 2030.

As well as a shortage of drivers, there is an efficiency issue to be tackled.

The “loading ratio” (how much of a truck's maximum capacity is utilised) currently stands at just 38% on average.

Enhancing the efficiency of the entire logistics process, including reducing loading and unloading times, has become an urgent priority.

There is also the macro aim of Japan achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 - the logistics sector accounts for approximately 10% of CO2 emissions.

The burden on logistics is increasing: a growing amount of items is in direct contrast with a reduction in available personnel, so a different approach is required.

The Auto Flow Road project is designed to be a dedicated highway for autonomous cargo pods, moving goods 24x7 without getting in the way of more conventional traffic.

This sort of innovation in logistics could contribute globally, as a future model for building more efficient and sustainable systems.

If it proves to be successful and profitable, of course - and that may prove challenging given the huge investment required.

More broadly, the World Economic Forum predicts a 78% increase in last-mile deliveries by 2030; to meet this growing demand, automation and streamlining of the entire logistics process are crucial.

One to watch.


Thank-you for reading and being part of our community - we trust you find these original pieces on emerging technology and digital innovation useful, valuable, and thought-provoking as we bridge the gap between today and what future tech might bring tomorrow in Plain English.

When you're ready, contact us to discuss how we can deliver independent, objective, and unbiased strategic foresight around the implications of emerging technologies for your organisation - https://www.futurehorizon.digital/

Think bold.

Think broad.

Think beyond.


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HORIZON is the weekly short summary Email from Future Horizon where the latest digital innovations and emerging technologies are explained in Plain English.

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