Demographics, Xenophobia, Racism: Innovation papering over cracks.

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This is the third of our new weekly strategic series of Top Ten Strategic Anticipations for 2025 – 2030. Topic number two, The 21st century is the Asian century, can be found here: https://lnkd.in/gp42dWin​
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Even as emerging technologies have often brought us capabilities to be closer together, the 21st century has seen division permeate more aspects of our modern lives.
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Digital discrimination includes taking the form of sexism, race, religion, nationality, neurodiversity, or orientation negative technology bias.
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The years to 2030 will see entrenched perspectives further exacerbated and amplified due to increased digital personalisation.
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Algorithms already learn what you like based on eyeball and ear time - and provide you ever more of that, in a perpetual self-reinforcing cycle.
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Social media models increase the promotion of sensational and divisive content - it garners the most reactions and interactions.
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Therefore, more people globally will consume media that aligns with their values, listen to commentators who explain events which resonate with their perspectives, and are swayed by on-message influencers.
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The coming years, as we spend more of our daily lives in the digital realm, will see this only increase.
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Increased digitalisation could result in higher levels of discrimination - and that comes down to data.
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To learn, all algorithms need to be trained on huge amounts of high-quality, representative data.
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The key is "representative": even now it doesn't always go to plan.
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Your biometric identity markers will be a digital currency of their own in the coming years, especially for cyber security - yet facial recognition systems have already been shown to misidentify people of colour.
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By 2030 recruitment tools will be completely automated and utterly depersonalised; they already favour male over female candidates.
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In some countries we will see increased state surveillance across the digital spectrum weaponised between 2025 and 2030, exacerbating xenophobia and nationalism - especially in authoritarian states..
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Come 2030 AI slop content of misinformation and disinformation will further fuel bickering about what is even real.
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If we can't even agree on base facts, then respectful dialogue and debate quickly descend into antagonistic slanging matches.
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To create a more just, equitable, and inclusive global community by 2030, emerging technologies and innovation have the potential to address many societal issues - if we consciously choose not to focus on what divides us.
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The future is not something that just happens to us, the future is something we do.
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Next up in our strategic series of Top Ten Anticipations for 2025 – 2030 is titled "Wearables becoming Implants" - which we'll deliver in HORIZON next week.

Model collapse.

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Nothing to do with fashion, or kids toys - but Artificial Intelligence (AI).
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Model collapse is what happens when models are trained on data that includes content generated by earlier AI iterations.
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Copies of copies of copies, ad infinitum.
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Put simply: ultimately it becomes an echo chamber.
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In order to learn, any and all AI algorithm needs to be trained on huge amounts of representative data - and of that, there's only so much.
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Synthetic data is thus becoming more common, valuable for use cases such as autonomous vehicles.
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Synthetic data explained: https://lnkd.in/giFygYPY​
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The timeless adage always holds, regarding of the tech: garbage in, garbage out.
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This recursive pattern of rinse-and-repeat, when extrapolated out, results in the models iteratively shifting further away from the original "real" data.
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The outputs they generate can thus be blurred, unreliable, distorted, or warped - feedback loops degrading as they go.
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Not only that, but folding in on itself translates to outputs that become not only less representative but also more uniform, as there is minimal variability introduced - eventually resulting in potential irrelevance.
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Given how pervasive AI and machine automation is becoming across work and play, this is not merely a conceptual or niche data science problem to solve.
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Without increased vigilance about how we train and maintain future systems, we'll end up inadvertently with wall-to-wall AI slop content.
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AI slop primer: https://lnkd.in/gA6TvzuR​
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It's vital for organisations to manage their data as a high quality asset, curating and guarding it as a competitive differentiator.
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Don't rely (at least not yet) on AI for your fundamental business outcomes, as this previous post highlights: https://lnkd.in/g2brsusD​
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AI model collapse is not inevitable, but the momentum is clearly in that direction.
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If you can't answer what your company is actively doing now to ensure that you don't end up in strategic data oblivion with any adoption of AI, you need expert help pronto.

No need to tense up, we can see straight through you.

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A novel piece of medical equipment from a Taiwanese manufacturer will in future make it easier for needles to be inserted in the vein of a patient.
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The patented optical technology of the portable 3D Vein Viewer Locator from Adison Biotechnology effectively turns the skin transparent.
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The unit works by being positioned over the patient - a hand, for instance - where via invisible light it will reveal a 3D viewing of the veins, making the process of performing medical assistance much smoother.
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It thus makes needle sticks more accurate, and therefore less painful, when inserting an IV drip or drawing blood for example.
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With a skilled medical professional and those with prominent veins, these procedures are normally straightforward - but not all patients are alike.
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Particularly troublesome can be small children, with infants often having a thick layer of fat which obscures veins from view.
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The vein locator has been proven effective even in infants as young as six months old, and in testing is reported to improve success rates by as much as 30%.
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As well as small children, it has applicability for all skin colours, patients with obesity, narrow veins, a broken limb, scars, or even burns.
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The fact that a 3D view is possible is a true innovation, allowing for the health worker to find the precise blood vessel, regardless of depth.
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As well as being portable and thus suitable for emergency interventions, it is also compatible with military power modules for use in the field.
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By harnessing emerging technologies to create advanced health devices, routine procedures such as blood draws and intravenous insertions are streamlined, enhancing patient outcomes.
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This is demonstrative of the increasing trend in biotechnology towards precision medicine, revolutionising patient care by improving procedural accuracy, reducing complication rates, and boosting efficiency.
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So don't be surprised to see this sort of cutting-edge tech in the future.

"Open and Shut".

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This is the title of the stunning image here, captured by Jaime Rojo and showing a group of monarch butterflies clustered together in Mexico.
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It was Highly Commended by the panel judging the annual Wildlife Photographer of the Year at the Natural History Museum in the UK.
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The butterflies blanket the trees and forest floor - entering a state of semi-dormancy; their extreme closeness provides protection and warmth.
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Separately, earlier this year the secret of how butterfly wings get their vibrant colours was revealed in a groundbreaking study.
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Using cutting-edge super resolution microscopy, researchers from The University of Sheffield investigated the developmental stages of butterfly scales, tracing their formation from caterpillar to butterfly.
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The study revealed that actin - a protein in butterfly's scales - orchestrates the intricate arrangement of the colourful structures.
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Vivid structural colours in butterflies are caused by photonic nanostructures scattering light.
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Structural colours evolved for numerous biological signalling functions and have important technological applications.
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The study creates opportunities for the future development of innovative technologies inspired by nature's own creations.
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Mimicking the reflective properties of butterfly scales, structural colour-based technologies may offer rapid and responsive solutions outside traditional laboratory-based approaches.
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Promising areas of applicability are broad - potentially including sensors and medical diagnostics.
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Transitioning to new kinds of sustainable paints and coatings, as a nature-inspired way to make bright colours, may in time be possible.
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The paper, "The actin cytoskeleton plays multiple roles in structural colour formation in butterfly wing scales", can be found in the journal Nature.
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Revered Computer Scientist Geoffrey Hinton earlier this year posted on X that "...GPT-4 is humanity's butterfly", referencing the Artificial Intelligence (AI) model from OpenAI.
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Looking at the image from Jaime is telling: many more openings lie ahead when we consider the possibilities of what powerful data models, scaled compute, and advanced algorithms may do for us in the future.
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As we invent and innovate we must also remember how rich, sophisticated, and amazing our natural world is - and draw inspiration from it.

Not our creative work.

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Lots of fear and doubt out there for many at the moment given recent world events, so this wonderful visual felt apt to share.
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Everything important is uncertain: unpredictability lying ahead is one of the best times to work with a strategic Futurist.